Hardin County Housing: Inventory Falls to 439 Homes

Key Takeaways

• Active inventory fell from 444 to 439 even though 28 new listings came on, because 24 homes went under contract, up from 14 the week before
• Trailing 30 days: 104 homes sold, 78 average days on market, average sold price $332,773, median sold price $307,495, about 4.2 months of inventory
• Under $250,000 is the most competitive tier at about 3.1 months of inventory; $400,000 to $600,000 sits at about 4.8 months and favors buyers; $600,000 to $800,000 is at about 7 months
• Contract releases are up. Rachel's question for sellers facing a repair request: is it worth losing the deal over?

Summary

Rachel Brantingham ended last week's update with a question: could Hardin County absorb 444 active homes? This week she had the answer. Twenty eight new listings came on the market, 24 homes went under contract, 16 families closed, and active inventory dropped to 439. Three of those 28 new listings went pending within the week.

It matters because the county's tiers are behaving very differently from one another, and because Rachel is seeing a pattern on the ground that the inventory numbers do not show: deals falling apart after they go under contract, often over repairs a seller decided not to make.

Full Article

Rachel started where she always does, with a reminder that the weekly numbers are a snapshot and not a strategy. "Your home is the biggest investment most of us are going to make in our lives," she said. "Before you go jumping into making the next major financial decision in your life, get with a real estate agent that studies these numbers and understands how they impact you."

Then the numbers, from the Heart of Kentucky Association of Realtors MLS for August 25 through 31. Twenty eight new listings came on, down from 47 the week before. Twenty four homes went under contract, up from 14. Sixteen closed. Active inventory fell from 444 to 439. "So the answer is yes," Rachel said. "We had 444 to begin with, 28 new listings came on the market, and we are actually down inventory to 439. That's a pretty decent absorption rate over a seven day period."

Over the trailing 30 days, 104 homes sold and average days on market sits at 78. Rachel called that a solid number, noting the county has seen as high as 100 earlier this year and as low as 60. Average list price rose slightly to $354,727, average sold price increased to $332,773, and median sold price rose to $307,495. She took a moment on the difference between average and median, because a viewer had asked. The average counts every sale. The median strips out the outliers, the $20,000 auction and the $5 million rare property, so it describes the typical buyer. "The average buyer in Hardin County is purchasing a home at $307,495 currently," she said. That puts the county at about 4.2 months of inventory, down from 4.4 last week, close to the line between a seller's and a buyer's market.

The tiers tell different stories, which is why Rachel warns against betting on the countywide figure. Under $250,000 there are 96 active listings, 31 sales in the last 30 days, about 3.1 months of inventory, and 72 days on market. "If you're looking under 250, it's a lot more competitive than the rest of the market," she said. "You're going to need to move a little bit faster. You're probably not going to get quite as much when you negotiate." Between $250,000 and $400,000, where 226 of the county's 439 active homes sit, inventory is about 4 months with 77 days on market. Between $400,000 and $600,000 it is about 4.8 months. "That is heavily a buyer's market," she said. "Ask for closing costs, ask for the repairs, ask for support on a rate buy down, because you can absolutely get that right now." From $600,000 to $800,000 the figure is about 7 months. "Ask for the moon and the stars. You might get lucky." Above $800,000, she said, is its own bird, and needs a luxury level agent.

The part of the update Rachel wanted sellers to hear was about contract releases. "I feel like a lot of sellers get super excited when they go under contract," she said. "They assume that they have hit the finish line." In today's market, she said, there can effectively be a second negotiation after inspection, and buyers who are carefully managing a down payment, closing costs and a monthly payment cannot always absorb a surprise. Her advice was to reframe the question. "Don't ask yourself, is this a fair request. The actual question is, is it worth losing the deal over? And what's the cost of canceling that deal and going back on the market?" Once a home goes back active after a contract, she said, buyers start asking what is wrong with it.

Grafton Sizemore added the lender's side. Many loan types require certain repairs regardless of who the buyer is, so a seller who refuses a fix, goes back on the market and finds a new buyer often ends up making the same repair anyway, 30 to 45 days later. Rachel agreed, and pointed to the seller disclosure rule: a defect found by one buyer has to be disclosed to the next.

Her closing read was steady. "With that many listings coming on the market, inventory still fell, which is a great sign in our area," she said. "Is it post COVID? Absolutely not." But there are opportunities, she said, on homes that have been sitting, for buyers with an agent who can navigate them. "There are some landmines out there."

Never miss what's happening in Hardin County. Create a free account and you'll get the weekly events email and every new article the moment it drops. No password, no spam, just your county.