Hardin County Housing: Inventory Ticks Up to 4.3 Months

Key Takeaways

• Months of inventory ticked up slightly to 4.3, from 3.9 last week, but the two windows aren't apples to apples: last week covered ten days, this week covers six
• Adjusted for the shorter window, contract activity actually sped up, from about 2.9 contracts a day to 4.5 a day
• September 18 to 24: 31 new listings, 27 homes under contract, 19 closings; 435 active listings countywide, 102 sold over the trailing 30 days, average days on market 79
• Under $250,000 stays a seller's market at about 3.1 months of inventory
• The $400,000 to $600,000 range keeps tightening, from roughly 10 months of inventory in mid-August to about 2.8 months now
• Above $600,000, the sample size is too small to draw a real conclusion, Rachel says

Summary

Rachel Brantingham walked through the Hardin County housing numbers for September 18 through 24, the county's first full reporting period since last week's discussion of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates. She wanted to know whether that news had actually moved the local market.

Her answer: not as much as she expected. Contract activity stayed strong, and once she adjusted for a shorter reporting window, the underlying pace of buyer activity had actually picked up.

Full Article

Rachel Brantingham opened this week's Hardin County housing market update by pointing back to last week's conversation about the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, and what that might mean locally. A full reporting period later, her read was straightforward.

"I was surprised at how little impact it actually had. I expected to see more," she said.

From September 18 through 24, Hardin County saw 31 new listings hit the market, 27 homes go under contract and 19 families close on a home. Rachel called the under-contract number "actually a really high number for what we've been seeing over the last several weeks."

Countywide, there are 435 active listings and 102 homes have sold over the trailing 30 days. Average days on market sits at 79, down from the week before. Average list price is $355,130, average sold price is $318,570, and median sold price rose about $1,000 to $291,000.

Months of inventory came in at 4.3, up from last week's 3.9. Rachel was careful to explain the comparison is not exactly apples to apples: last week's number covered a ten-day window, and this week's covers six.

"So if we simply compare the number of contracts or closings, we aren't making a fair comparison," she said. Once she adjusted for that, the underlying activity told a different story: contracts averaged about 2.9 a day in the previous window, compared with 4.5 a day this week. Meanwhile the countywide sales total over the trailing 30 days slipped from 112 to 102, which she said reflects deals that were negotiated weeks earlier rather than what buyers are doing right now.

"So while our overall months of inventory increased slightly, the latest contract activity suggests buyers have continued making purchasing decisions," she said.

What the Numbers Look Like by Price Point

Rachel's biggest caution this week: the countywide averages don't describe every buyer's or seller's experience.

Under $250,000, Hardin County is still sitting at about 3.1 months of inventory. "You are actually entering a seller's market," Rachel said, "and you're going to be probably competing against other offers."

The band she spent the most time on was $400,000 to $600,000, which she has been tracking closely since it sat near 10 months of inventory back in mid-August. It has since sped up dramatically, to about 2.8 months, with 80 active homes and 29 sales over the trailing 30 days.

"We actually saw some real activity open up between the $400 and $600 [thousand], which is something we hadn't seen in prior weeks," she said. Her advice: sellers in that range should consider listing now, and buyers need to be ready to move aggressively and compete for a good deal.

Above $600,000, Rachel again urged caution. "Our sales samples are much smaller, so we have to be careful about drawing broad conclusions from just one or two transactions," she said.

What She's Watching

Rachel doesn't expect the current pace to hold. She said she expects sales to slow and inventory to climb in the weeks ahead as the market heads toward the holidays, a normally slower stretch. Her advice for anyone weighing a move right now is to lean on an expert rather than try to time the market alone.

"It is a unique moment in a unique market condition," she said. "So speak to a licensed agent before making the decision if now is the right time for you to buy or sell."

She closed the way she often does, pointing past the headlines and back to the local data.

"You can hear the national news. You can hear things said by friends and family members. And then I pulled this report weekly, and I'm always surprised. Data is where you want to look to see exactly how the national stuff is actually impacting our local market."

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