Hardin County Housing: Inventory Drops to 3.9 Months

Key Takeaways

• Months of inventory dropped from 4.7 to 3.9, putting Hardin County back into a seller's market, and it happened in the days before the Fed raised rates
• Over a ten-day window, September 8 through 18: 40 new listings, 29 homes under contract, 24 closings
• 434 active listings countywide, 112 homes sold over the trailing 30 days, average days on market 80
• The $400,000 to $600,000 band tightened sharply, from about 10 months in mid-August to 3.7 months now (81 active, 22 sales)
• Above $600,000 the sample is too small to read: 24 active and one sale between $600,000 and $800,000, 13 active and one sale above $800,000
• Rachel's advice for sellers: the appraiser is not the problem right now, the competition on the market is

Summary

Rachel Brantingham was back after a week off, and she stretched the reporting window to match. Instead of the usual seven days, these numbers cover September 8 through 18, a ten-day window, so the activity counts below are not directly comparable to a normal week.

The headline is a sharp inventory drop that landed just before the Federal Reserve raised rates, which Rachel flagged as the interesting part:

"We were at 4.7 months of inventory. We dropped to 3.9 months of inventory, putting us back into a bit of a seller's market. So interesting that this occurred right here before, of course, a rate hike."

Her read on why: people may have moved ahead of an expected rate increase, or the market is simply past the last holiday with kids back in school, which frees people up to actually focus on a move.

The Numbers

Activity, September 8-18 (ten days):

Countywide snapshot:

By Price Point

Under $250,000 — 91 active homes, 34 sales in the last 30 days. 2.7 months of inventory. Rachel's read: clearly a strong seller's market, still.

$250,000 to $400,000 — 229 active homes, 54 sales. 4.2 months of inventory. This band represents the bulk of the local market.

$400,000 to $600,000 — 81 active homes, 22 sales. 3.7 months of inventory, and this is the band that moved. Rachel has been tracking it closely, and her own trajectory for it runs from roughly 10 months in mid-August, to 6.5, to 4.8, to 5.4, and now 3.7.

In her words on air:

"So we've seen some movement over the last week and a half in that price point."

Above $600,000 — Rachel's own caution is the headline here: once you get above $600,000, the numbers become much less reliable because the sample is so small. Between $600,000 and $800,000 there are 24 active homes and one trailing sale. Above $800,000, 13 active homes and one trailing sale.

"In the last 30 days, only one home between six and 800,000 has actually closed in Hardin County."

Mathematically the absorption figures for both of those bands are very high, but a single additional closing moves them enormously, so she warns against drawing broad conclusions from them. Her read on the buyer pool up there is that it is either holding off or simply not present right now, and that a backlog of closings could roll in as a domino effect over the next few weeks.

The slower absorption at the top is also what drags on the countywide averages, since those homes can sell for two, three or four times the local median and take much longer to move.

What This Means If You Are Selling

Multiple-offer situations still happen, but Rachel says they are now few and far between, and they are specific to homes that are both presented to the market incredibly well and priced very appropriately.

Her advice, and the sharpest line of the segment:

"Unfortunately, the appraiser is not your biggest challenge right now. It's all the competition that is sitting on the market."

What to ask your agent:

1. Not just what comparable homes have sold for, which sets your sale price, but what your actual competition is currently listed at.
2. How many price drops have happened inside your range.
3. Where that puts you. Rachel's guidance is to price around 5% below what other homes are selling for in your band.

Local, Not National

Rachel closed with the framing she comes back to most weeks:

"Don't let the national headlines tell you what's happening in the housing market, because I can promise you it is totally different on a local level."

She also offered an open door: call her with questions even if you are not buying or selling, and she will walk through what your property looks like in the current market in real time.

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